Marwan Muasher is the vice president for studies at Carnegie, where he oversees research in Washington and Beirut on the Middle East. Here he writes another important article on the passage of the fourth year of the Arab Awakening and what to expect in the year ahead.

"How will history judge the uprisings that started in many parts of the Arab world in 2011? The label “Arab Spring” proved too simplistic from the beginning. Transformational processes defy black-and-white expectations, but in the end, will the awakenings be more reminiscent of what happened in Europe in 1848, when several uprisings took place within a few weeks only to be followed by counterrevolutions and renewed authoritarian rule? Or will they more closely resemble the 1989 collapse of the Soviet Union, after which some countries swiftly democratized while others remained in thrall to dictatorship?"

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Egyptian Mayam Mahmoud stirred debate in the Middle East when she appeared at Arabs Got Talent's stage and rapped, defying the expectations of a veiled woman in this part of her world.

"It's got a lot of people talking about whether it's possible for a veiled girl, or even a girl, to do this," says Mahmoud, who says her veil is a personal choice and has little relevance to her music. "If a girl has a dream to work in a field where many girls don't work, or to do post-graduate study, or to work in a position higher than her husband – all these things often can't be done."

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